Elon Musk just moved his trillion-dollar revenue target for SpaceX up by years, and the stock surged after hours, but the math behind his boldest claim deserves a much harder look.
Elon Musk just moved his trillion-dollar revenue target for SpaceX up by years, and the stock surged after hours, but the math behind his boldest claim deserves a much harder look.
On October 20, 2026, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) reported third-quarter results. On the earnings call, Elon Musk said SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 would be “somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.”
Later that night, Elon Musk went further in a post on X: “As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible”. The quarter was excellent, but that number is a dream, and part of the share price likely depends on it.
The stock closed at $147.79, down 0.11% for the regular session, leaving the company with a market value of about $2.01 trillion. In after-hours trading, it reached $159.70 as of 7:59 p.m. ET, a gain of 8.06%.
Shares are still trading below their first close on June 12, 2026. At the October 20 close, they were 8.18% under that level, inside a 52-week range of $104.83 to $225.64.
What Musk Actually Claimed About Run Rate
Annual recurring revenue, or run rate, takes one month or one quarter of revenue and multiplies it out to a full year. It measures selling speed at a point in time. The revenue actually booked over a full year can come in well below it.
End-of-2027 run rate looks better than calendar 2027 revenue would. For a business growing this fast, that figure is built on the last month after a full year of growth. Musk linked the range to Grokbot, which he said: “may end up being what uses most of our superintelligence compute.”
Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said SpaceX remains on track for its previously stated goal of $100 billion in run rate by the end of 2026, measured on December revenue.
The formal guidance covers a much shorter period. Bret Johnsen said, “We now see total company revenues in the range of $33 billion to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027.” Third-quarter revenue was $14.58 billion.
Averytin News Financial update.