Archer will beat the market over the next three years.
Archer will beat the market over the next three years.
On the surface, Archer Aviation (ACHR -5.33%) stock has been a disappointment this year. The eVTOL stock (electric vertical takeoff and landing) currently trades at about $5 a share, and has traded in the red for most of the year. It closed 2025 at about $7.50 a share; it has spent much of 2026 below $7.
But, honestly, what else should we have expectd? This is a company earning almost zero revenue last year; an aviation hopeful whose aircraft, Midnight, lacked -- and still lacks -- regulatory approval for commercial flights; and a high-flying, speculative stock whose valuation depended on faith, hope, and a whole lot of things going right.
Still, a lot could change in three years. And if Archer executes on its ambitions, I think this stock could gain more than 50% in that time span.
What Archer could look like in three years
Archer Aviation is a pioneer in the nascent eVTOL industry. It, along with Joby Aviation (JOBY -3.70%), is trying to become the first U.S. company to offer air taxi services -- essentially a new mode of aerial transportation that would shuttle you through the air instead of on the ground. The vision for Archer is to transform the congested urban commute by replacing hour-long car rides with 10- to 20-minute zero-emission flights.
As mentioned above, Archer doesn't have the regulatory green light to offer air taxi services commercially. By 2029, however, I expect that Archer will have received FAA type certification and will have started commercial operations.
I don't think that's overly optimistic either. Thing is, Archer has completed three of the FAA's four certification phases and is now working through the final one. Meanwhile, its Midnight aircraft have been completing piloted test flights in California, including trips between cities. Add to that the federal government's enthusiastic push to bring eVTOLs to a major city near you, and I think Archer has a shot at getting Midnight certified in 36 months.
On top of that, Archer has opportunities now that could make it a formidable business in three years. Take, for instance, its defense plans. In August, Archer announced plans to acquire three Boeing subsidiaries, including Insitu, a profitable drone manufacturer generating more than $200 million in annual revenue.
That's right: Archer, who barely eked out $300,000 in 2025, could be generating not insignificant revenue soon. Assuming the deal closes, Archer could enter 2029 with a strong defense business alongside its passenger enterprise.
Averytin News Financial update.