ARK Investment Management projects Tesla’s share price could reach $4,400 by 2031, driven largely by robotaxi revenue, and envisions a Tesla‑SpaceX merger that could generate $3.8 trillion in combined revenue. The firm also notes Elon Musk’s 19.8% stake and a massive compensation outlook.
ARK Investment Management sees a strategic merger between Tesla and SpaceX as a catalyst for unprecedented growth, estimating combined revenue of $3.8 trillion by 2031[1]. The firm argues that the merger would amplify Tesla’s autonomous‑driving ambitions while leveraging SpaceX’s launch and satellite capabilities.
Based on its internal models, ARK projects Tesla’s stock price to climb to $4,400 by 2031, implying roughly a 1,095% upside from today’s levels[1]. Robotaxis are expected to account for about 80% of the projected enterprise value, underscoring the central role of autonomous‑fleet revenue in the forecast.
In its base‑case scenario, ARK anticipates 8.1 million cumulative robotaxis and 1 million external Optimus units on the road by 2031, driving total revenue toward $1.45 trillion and a market capitalization near $17.5 trillion[1]. The analyst team highlights Tesla’s vertical integration and cost advantages as key differentiators for scaling robotaxi services.
The report also notes that Elon Musk holds a 19.8% stake in Tesla and is slated to receive $158.36 billion in compensation for 2025 based on grant‑date award valuations[1]. Morningstar expects another quarter of negative free cash flow as Tesla prepares to release its Q3 results, adding a short‑term earnings pressure point.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) rose 3.8% to $368.06 on Monday before slipping 0.5% overnight, as investors digested both ARK’s bullish outlook and news that Alphabet’s Waymo plans to expand its autonomous fleet fivefold[1]. The mixed market reaction reflects the tension between long‑term growth optimism and near‑term cash‑flow concerns.