ARK Invest’s open-source model values Tesla at about $4,400 per share in 2031, with robotaxis at 80% of enterprise value.
ARK Invest’s open-source model values Tesla at about $4,400 per share in 2031, with robotaxis at 80% of enterprise value.
Tesla stock is down 18.16% since January 1, but ARK Invest’s model puts it near $4,400 per share in 2031. That would be nearly 12 times its October 19 close of $368.06.
ARK ties about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value to a single business outside car sales. In its base case, ARK also sees Tesla selling 10.2 million cars in 2031, up from 1.6 million in 2025.
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The Business Carrying ARK’s Forecast
That business is robotaxis, Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing service, according to ARK’s updated model.
In the base case, about 8.1 million robotaxis bring in $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue in 2031. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, adds $212 billion from about 1 million units sold to outside buyers.
ARK’s model adds a new artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure line that drives Optimus performance. It expects Tesla’s cumulative AI infrastructure spending to reach $225 billion by 2031. That is up from about $7 billion at the end of 2025.
The model also sees total revenue reaching $1.45 trillion in 2031. Those figures update the Tesla model ARK last published in 2024.
“ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024. The primary reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is likely to inflect as robotaxis continue to proliferate,” ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire wrote.
Averytin News Financial update.