Elon Musk Promised Self-Driving Teslas In 2016—Now Customers Are Suing Him To Make Good On His Promise -

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is facing an international backlash over self-driving promises the carmaker made nearly a decade ago, with class actions now spanning California, Australia and a fresh European campaign.

The suits land two days before Tesla reports first-quarter earnings.

The latest front opened last week in the Netherlands, where a Dutch Tesla owner launched a campaign organizing European drivers who paid thousands for automated driving they still cannot access.

An Australian law firm is pursuing a parallel class action accusing Tesla of selling vehicles incapable of fully autonomous driving, while in California an 80-year-old retired attorney who paid $8,000 for Full Self-Driving in 2017 won class-action certification in September on behalf of roughly 3,000 Tesla owners seeking refunds.

The Hardware 3 Problem

At the center of each case is Hardware 3, the outdated computer system installed in millions of Teslas that Wall Street analysts say can no longer run Elon Musk‘s most sophisticated Full Self-Driving software.

Musk told investors in January 2025 that Tesla would eventually upgrade the hardware for lifetime-FSD buyers, calling the process “painful and difficult.”

Tesla offered complimentary third-generation upgrades to some customers in 2020 and 2021, then moved to fourth-generation hardware in 2023.

Owners who paid upfront for lifetime access found themselves with outdated equipment again.

Musk has not publicly updated the plan since, leaving Wednesday’s call as the next pressure point.

What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

The lawsuits land at an awkward moment. Tesla reports Q1 earnings after the close on Wednesday, and Kalshi’s dedicated Tesla earnings-mention market is pricing near-certainty that Musk addresses Full Self-Driving on the call.

Whether he speaks to the growing legal pressure, and to the millions of owners stuck with outdated hardware, is a separate question.

Polymarket traders are skeptical that Tesla is on track to hit other targets. A California Robotaxi launch by June 30 is priced at 15%, and Optimus, hitting public sale by the same date, sits at 7%.

A contract on the Robovan gives a 23% chance it will be available for sale before the end of the year.

Tesla shares are trading around $395 after rallying into earnings on AI5 chip optimism and robotaxi expansion to Dallas and Houston. Q1 deliveries of 358,023 missed consensus.

Analysts expect EPS near 37 cents on revenue around $22.26 billion.

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