These prediction market contracts aren't good investment opportunities.
These prediction market contracts aren't good investment opportunities.
Prediction markets that offer the ability to make ultra-short-term bets on whether the price of cryptocurrencies will rise or fall are more popular than ever, and more players are crowding into the arena to get a slice of the bettors' money. On Oct. 6, Coinbase Global (COIN -4.90%) started offering prediction contracts regarding whether Bitcoin (BTC -2.69%), Ethereum (ETH -5.43%), and eight other major cryptocurrencies will rise or fall during 15-minute intervals. Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, is responsible for supplying the infrastructure for the contracts.
Financial Times reporting showed that five- to 15-minute contracts made up more than half of crypto betting on Kalshi and Polymarket as of March 2026. Here's what I predict will happen next.
Fees are high, and success rates are low
I predict that most 15-minute market bettors will lose money, while the platforms will rake in plenty of fees. Once that process kicks off, I predict that financial regulators will then proceed to tighten the rules.
During any 15-minute interval, Bitcoin's price -- along with the prices of all the crypto majors -- exhibits a pattern of random fluctuation that results from a combination of factors. These include the order flow on exchanges, headlines, and an abundance of algorithmic trading.
Ordinary bettors, like day traders, have no edge over 15 minutes, while fast automated firms do. It's a foolhardy endeavor, but that won't stop people from futilely trying their luck. The platforms capture fees whether or not that luck delivers a return.
For instance, Kalshi's fee schedule charges the people accepting another person's posted price for a contract at a rate of 3.5% of the stake. So that means someone needs to be right more than half of the time just to break even -- and remember, being right even once is hard enough.
Bettors also face faster opponents. In an Oct. 1 report, Galaxy Research found that, across all market types, 69% of 2.9 million Polymarket accounts that appear to be run by people finished the study period at a loss, losing $338.9 million of their hard-earned cash combined, while 125,429 automated accounts gained $246.8 million.
In many cases, the house plays the game too. Kalshi owns a market maker called Kalshi Trading, which takes the other sides of some of its customers' bets, Bloomberg reported in December 2025. A proposed class action filed in November 2025 alleges that it sets prices that disadvantage customers, which Kalshi denies.
Averytin News Financial update.