Gary Black predicts SpaceX will announce an all-stock buyout of Tesla within weeks, citing the flying Roadster reveal as a strategic signal. Other analysts remain skeptical of the car's commercial value, viewing the event primarily as an engineering showcase.
Market speculation surrounding a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX intensified following the unveiling of the second-generation Roadster on October 15, 2026. Future Fund managing director Gary Black predicted that SpaceX could announce an all-stock acquisition of Tesla for $420 per share within the next few weeks, with the deal potentially taking up to a year to close. Black interpreted the recent flying car demonstration as a strategic move to justify combining the two companies, stating that the event served to make the case for a merger between the entities.
The Roadster reveal, held at SpaceX’s Rocket Test and Development Center in McGregor, Texas, featured a prototype that utilized ten thrusters fed by compressed air to perform a barrel-roll maneuver and land back on its wheels. According to TechCrunch, the demonstration highlighted a deepening engineering partnership between Tesla and SpaceX. While the spectacle generated significant media attention, analysts have offered mixed reactions regarding its financial implications for Tesla shareholders.
Black expressed caution regarding the vehicle's direct impact on Tesla's bottom line. He estimated that the Roadster could add approximately $0.06 to Tesla’s 2029 earnings per share, representing just 1.1% of the consensus adjusted earnings forecast of $5.40. Black noted that limited brand benefits are expected, as few drivers prioritize sub-one-second acceleration or aerial capabilities. Despite this skepticism, he maintained that the primary purpose of the event was to facilitate a corporate combination.
Other industry observers have echoed similar sentiments about the commercial viability of the flying car. Gene Munster, a prominent analyst, interpreted the Roadster showcase as another sign of Elon Musk’s desire to combine Tesla and SpaceX. Conversely, Benzinga reported that a top analyst described the vehicle as a "tech flex" with little commercial value beyond embarrassing rivals. JPMorgan also commented on the launch, noting that the event was primarily aimed at showcasing the vehicle's engineering capabilities rather than signaling immediate revenue growth.
Financial institutions are closely monitoring the situation, with Barclays identifying an all-stock SpaceX acquisition as the likeliest structure for any potential deal. Baird expects that merger speculation will continue to dominate Tesla’s near-term narrative, overshadowing fundamental performance metrics. Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) shares edged higher overnight heading into Monday, with TSLA rising 0.6% and SPCX gaining 1.2%, as investors weighed the implications of the predicted takeover.