Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports first quarter earnings after the bell today, with a Q&A call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.
The stock has rallied recently on Elon Musk’s AI5 chip reveal and a wider Robotaxi rollout into Dallas and Houston.
But Polymarket only gives the company an 18% chance of beating earnings.
Words On The Board
The real action is on a Kalshi market where traders are pricing the specific words Musk and his team will say on the call.
“Terafab” is at 89%. Tesla’s proposed one-terawatt AI chip facility was explicitly excluded from the $20 billion 2026 capex figure, likely because the project’s estimated cost runs into the trillions.
Short-seller Jim Chanos has mocked the project on X: “Who needs FSD and Robotaxis when you can spend $5-13T on AI chip fabs?! That’s only 16-40% of US GDP.”
Reuters has reported Musk’s team is already contacting suppliers, meaning any guidance tonight becomes the first real cost figure Wall Street can price.
Auto Fundamentals
“FSD” sits at 98% as class actions spanning California, Australia and the Netherlands accuse Tesla of selling autonomy it never delivered. A live comment on Hardware 3 refunds could move the stock.
“Cybertruck” is at 59%. 2025 sales crashed roughly 48% year-over-year to about 20,000 units, and up to 1 in 5 trucks are being sold to related companies.
The Street’s Take
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has a $600 target and this week called Tesla’s stretch into earnings “code red,” describing the stock as at a “crossroads” as “bulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will take shape over the coming year.”
The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET.
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