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Why small wins outshine lucky outcomesConfidence is a feedback loop. When you see a steady stream of measurable progress, your brain reinforces the belief that you are capable. Rare strokes of luck, by contrast, are noisy and unreliable; they can inflate confidence temporarily but leave you vulnerable when the next lucky break doesn’t arrive. By focusing on small, repeatable actions that you can quantify, you create a stable signal that your effort is moving you forward. Over time, that signal compounds, turning modest daily improvements into a robust sense of competence.Designing a simple, quantitative progress metricThe first step is to...