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Backtesting is the first step in strategy development, but it is also the graveyard of many traders' accounts. It is incredibly easy to fool yourself into thinking you have found a holy grail when you are simply fitting a strategy to historical noise. To move from a theoretical idea to a viable edge, you must rigorously test your assumptions against reality, not just a static dataset. The Survivorship Bias Trap The biggest mistake I see is survivorship bias. When you backtest, you are looking at a list of trades that survived the filter. You are ignoring every failed entry, the...