The Kelly criterion is elegant in theory: bet a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge. But exotic pairs break Kelly because th

The Kelly criterion is elegant in theory: bet a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge. But exotic pairs break Kelly because the edge isn't fixed and the cost isn't constant. On $USDTRY, where spreads can jump from 8 pips to 25 pips in a single news event, the effective edge can swing from positive to negative between entry and exit. If you're sizing positions with naive Kelly, you're not trading - you're gambling with a formula that doesn't know it's in an FX market.The problem with static percentage riskMost traders risk 1 percent per trade. That's sensible on...